Alternative Technology Assn Forums

1. 

   dymonite69
   Member

   An interesting statistic on the worldwide production capacity of solar PV.

   http://www.rise.org.au/info/Tech/pv/index.html

   It shows that production capacity doubles every 2-3 years. That figure is closer to 3 years based on actual production/consumption.

   Based on this we would expect a time frame of about 25-35 years before we are able to meet our country's energy needs with solar (assuming there are no competing worldwide buyers)

   Note this degree of sustained growth would be exceptional considering that we have not been to achieve this for any other energy source we use currently.

   Posted Saturday 10 Jul 2010 @ 12:08:37 pm from IP #
2. 

   sun2steam
   Member

   I cannot understand how you come to your conclusions using the reference you have given. For instance the paper describes BP as part of Australia's PV module production. BP has pulled out of this production in Australia some time ago.

   Besides what is the point discussing the worldwide production capacity and relating it to Australia's energy needs alone? Do you mean the whole world has to produce for 30 years to satisfy just Australia's needs?

   Posted Sunday 11 Jul 2010 @ 2:27:15 am from IP #
3. 

   dymonite69
   Member

   Assuming that all industrialised countries want a representative share of manufactured panels to supply their own energy, it will be about 30 years before there are enough photovoltaics to satisfy our 2010 needs.

   Look at the graphs in figure 11 and 12 (and the following tables). Production capacity, production and installations have followed a exponential rise that roughly equates to a doubling every 2-3 years. You are correct to point out that Australia actually lags slightly behind this at around a doubling of every 5 years.

   I would assume most of our capacity comes from panels manufactured overseas on the world market.

   In comparison fossil fuel consumption (and therefore production) doubles every 20 years or so. Until the late 1800s energy requirements were relatively trivial compared to now. So we will try to achieve for Australia with solar in 30 years what took over 100 years to achieve with mined fossil fuels.

   Posted Sunday 11 Jul 2010 @ 4:03:32 am from IP #

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